Standard Payout
The following chart shows the suggested payments when using a flat $100,000 payment for the Level
Four jackpot prize. The Total Wins is the expected number of winners at each level in the 2,085,136
unique combinations of four outcomes.
For the purpose of this illustration, assume the bet is $1.00. Of course, the casino can allow any
limit on this bet, with the amounts in this illustration being paid per dollar bet.
Repeats |
Pay To Player |
Total Wins |
Total Paid |
1 |
20 |
53,428 |
1,068,560 |
2 |
250 |
1,406 |
351,500 |
3 |
5,000 |
37 |
185,000 |
4 |
100,000 |
1 |
100,000 |
Total Paid |
1,705,060 |
Total Bet |
2,085,136 |
Casino Profit |
380,076 |
House Edge |
18.228% |
Only initial repeats matter. I.E. If the first spin is a repeat of the prior spin, and the second
spin is not a repeat, it doesn't matter if the third spin repeats either of the previous spins. Since the second
spin was not a repeat, new bets are accepted and the third spin is actually the first spin of the next
series. Therefore, the odds of winning anything, is the same as Roulette's regular single number odds:
1:38. Similarly, once any number of repeats is achieved, the odds of getting at least one more repeat,
remains at 1:38.
The casino could set any payment schedule it wishes. The following two charts show alternate payment
schedules.
Pay To Player |
Total Paid |
1 |
20 |
1,068,560 |
2 |
250 |
351,500 |
3 |
5,000 |
185,000 |
4 |
250,000 |
250,000 |
Total Paid |
1,855,060 |
Total Bet |
2,085,136 |
Casino Profit |
230,076 |
House Edge |
11.034% |
| |
Pay To Player |
Total Paid |
1 |
25 |
1,335,700 |
2 |
250 |
351,500 |
3 |
2,500 |
92,500 |
4 |
125,000 |
125,000 |
Total Paid |
1,904,700 |
Total Bet |
2,085,136 |
Casino Profit |
180,436 |
House Edge |
8.653% |
|
50% Probability Payout
The above charts are based upon the statistical average. However, that shows a somewhat inaccurate portrayal. Far
more accurate, particularly when estimating a casino's profit, is to use the point where there is a 50% chance for a payout as
the basis for calculations.
As shown on the Probability & Statistics section of the Math page, there is a 50% chance of a Level 4 jackpot
occurring in 1,445,305.79 spins. Although the same chart shows a Level 1 repeat having a 50% chance in 25.99 spins, the Law
of Large Numbers returns to dictate that it happens, on average, every 38 spins. Therefore, there are about 38,034.36
Level 1 occurrences for every Level 4 winner. However, 1,000.90 of those will have another repeat, leaving 37,033.46 Level
1 winners. Ditto for Level 2 and 3.
The same three payment schedule versions as above are shown here, using the Level 4 50% probability payout point of
1,445,306 spins.
Pay To Player |
Total Wins |
Total Paid |
1 |
20 |
37,033.46 |
740,669 |
2 |
250 |
974,56 |
243,890 |
3 |
5,000 |
25.34 |
126,700 |
4 |
100,000 |
1.00 |
100,000 |
Total Paid |
1,211,259 |
Total Bet |
1,445,306 |
Casino Profit |
234,047 |
House Edge |
16.194% |
| |
Pay To Player |
Total Paid |
1 |
20 |
740,669 |
2 |
250 |
243,890 |
3 |
5,000 |
126,700 |
4 |
250,000 |
250,000 |
Total Paid |
1,361,259 |
Total Bet |
1,445,306 |
Casino Profit |
84,047 |
House Edge |
5.815% |
| |
Pay To Player |
Total Paid |
1 |
25 |
925,837 |
2 |
250 |
243,890 |
3 |
2,500 |
63,350 |
4 |
125,000 |
125,000 |
Total Paid |
1,358,077 |
Total Bet |
1,445,306 |
Casino Profit |
87,230 |
House Edge |
6.035% |
|
Comparison
Since it is possible for a player to make regular Roulette wagers on the most recent outcome
repeating, these next two charts show how successful such a player can be.
A typical player, starting with a $1 bet, would increases his bet just a little with each
win:
Repeats |
Win |
Keep |
Increase |
Next Bet |
Net Win |
1 |
35 |
32 |
3 |
4 |
32 |
2 |
140 |
129 |
11 |
15 |
161 |
3 |
525 |
490 |
35 |
50 |
651 |
4 |
1,750 |
1,750 |
-50 |
0 |
2,451 |
This typical player, winning $35 from a $1 wager, might increase the bet by $3, for a net win
of $32 - significantly more than what the suggested jackpot payment is for one repeat. If there
is another repeat, that $4 bet pays $140 - significantly less than what the suggested jackpot
payment is for two repeats. The typical player would then increase the bet by $11, etc. After 4 repeats,
this player would have won $2,420 - compared to the suggested $100,000 for the Hit It Again jackpot
payout.
This next example is a hypothetical aggressive player, one who is also starting with $1, but trying
to duplicate the suggested Jackpot payments:
Repeats |
Win |
Keep |
Increase |
Next Bet |
Net Win |
1 |
35 |
20 |
15 |
16 |
20 |
2 |
560 |
230 |
330 |
346 |
250 |
3 |
12,110 |
4,750 |
7,360 |
7,706 |
5,000 |
4 |
269,710 |
269,710 |
-7,706 |
0 |
282,416 |
The aggressive player is keeping just enough so that the net win from each of the first three
levels is the same as the suggested Hit It Again payout shown above. As can be seen, this means a
fourth repeat will pay significantly more than the suggested payment shown above.
There is one major flaw in the aggressive gambler's plan: The $7,706 fourth bet (and in most
casinos, the $346 third bet) will exceed the casino's maximum bet limit.
Download the Excel
document containing the charts above, as well as the charts on the Progressive Payout and Math pages.
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